Institute for Advanced Study Informal Astrophysics Seminar

ABSTRACT: The human demand for products of photosynthesis is a powerful measure of the aggregate impact of human action on the biosphere and indicator of societal vulnerability to climate change. We show results from several studies that use satellite and statistical data to estimate the amount of Earth’s net primary production (NPP) on land required to support regional and global use of food, fiber and NPP-based fuel products across a ten-year period. Earth’s planetary NPP ‘supply’ was > estimated using AVHRR vegetation index and MODIS derived NPP products to establish a baseline extending from 1982 – 2005. NPP carbon ‘demand’ was estimated by applying biophysical models to consumption data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization to calculate the annual amount of NPP required for the products consumed. Results show that globally, humans consume more than 20% of Earth’s total net primary production on land and that both populations and per capita consumption increased between 1995 and 2005. Regionally, the NPP-carbon balance percentage varies from 6% to over 70% and locally from near 0% to over 30,000% in major urban areas. Large uncertainties exist in both supply and demand calculations but while the supply trend varies in sign demand continues to rise. Scenarios modeling the impact of per capita consumption, population growth, and technology suggest that NPP demand as percent of supply is likely to increase substantially in the next 40 years despite better harvesting and processing efficiencies.